Tri-Cities home prices are on track to remain near their current levels through the end of 2026. Sales and prices continue performing at record highs, but most of this year’s price growth occurred during the first half.
Inventory is increasing, giving buyers more options, but the number of available homes remains below pre-pandemic levels. That limited supply continues to support prices, even as high mortgage rates and more selective buyers restrict how much further they can climb.
The first half of the year did much of the market’s heavy lifting. The year-to-date median sale price in the Kingsport-Bristol metro area increased 2.04%, placing it close to most full-year forecasts. Zillow’s outlook calls for a 2.4% increase in Kingsport-Bristol during the last half of 2026, leaving relatively little room for additional growth before December.
Johnson City experienced a much stronger first half. Its year-to-date median sale price rose 10.5%, exceeding every full-year forecast included in the current outlook. Zillow projects approximately 2% growth for Johnson City during the second half of the year. A first-half increase of that size is unlikely to continue at the same pace, making a cooling period or price plateau more likely.
Other forecasts also point toward moderate growth rather than another major increase. Realtor.com projects a 1.2% gain, while the National Association of Realtors® offers a more optimistic 4% outlook.
Mortgage rates remain the biggest obstacle to additional price growth. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate recently reached a yearly high of 6.76%. The Federal Reserve also held its benchmark rate steady at its latest meeting, while three members supported an increase. That signals buyers should not expect meaningful rate relief in the immediate future.
Higher borrowing costs have made buyers more cautious. They are taking longer to make decisions and are increasingly willing to pass on homes that need significant repairs or carry inflated asking prices. That does not mean demand has disappeared. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes continue to sell and hold their value.
The growing divide between desirable and overpriced properties will likely define the market for the remainder of 2026. Homes in good condition and priced according to current comparable sales can still move quickly. Listings that require extensive work or begin with overly ambitious prices are more likely to remain on the market and eventually require reductions.
For sellers, pricing correctly from the first day is increasingly important. Starting too high can waste valuable time and weaken a listing’s momentum.
Buyers face less bidding pressure than they did during the most competitive recent years, but the strongest listings still attract attention. Waiting for a widespread decline in Tri-Cities home prices is unlikely to pay off this year. The more probable outcome is a stable market with firm prices, selective buyers and slower growth through December.
Posted by Liv Stevens onEnjoy this blog post? Click here to subscribe for updates
Leave A Comment